Look. This is a new golden age of cocaine, because of the big cuts in everything in the US took away the cocaine busting operations in Colombia and Bolivia, because the revolutionaries that previously kept control of it stood down and became a political party and new, profit-driven cartels came up, and because battery technology means that narcosubs and similar drone things work much better than before (and they can be made remote-operated, so the cops can't do shit even when they find one). Wholesale prices have halved or gone down 60% to like, 12k usd / kilo, street prices commensurate. The huge new opportunities created by increased market size have increased competition and made the cartel nature of the cartels decrease. So always think of that when you look at people acting like this and having such megalomaniac goals.
It actually might. It affected the mood of stockbrokers in the 1980s, both because of general energy levels and also because they were addicted and had to keep the money flowing. That must do something to macroeconomics.
When all this crashes, future historians will look back and wonder how so many got hoodwinked by AI.
Some of these future historians might even be reading this Hacker News thread.
To any future historians reading this, many of us did know this AI stock bonanza was just a modern day tulip mania. Alas many wealthy people did get hoodwinked though.
Of course, we just need to figure out how every person on earth would make at least $7,000 after they loose their job on the name of AI. (Assuming they need at least $3,500 for other basic needs).
Agree with the absurdity. I also had to look at are there other absurd but real things. Estimating at 4.2 trillion in oil revenue is about $500 per person globally. Until you factor in the uneven distribution of that revenue what seems like an order of magnitude problem goes away.
There are of course many other holes to poke in a high level estimate like this.
Yeah. I see this estimate as either A) hot air (my serious take), or B) a dire warning of out of control inflation, or C) a prediction that they'll be a going concern in 500 years when $30T is in fact an average corporate revenue figure if the USD still exists by then.
I have completed stopped using Anthropic since Kimi 3 released, and only ever K3 and Codex nowadays. I pay for K3, and get Codex and Claude free from work. Almost everyone I know prefers Codex to Claude.
The question isn't whether or not every person pays $3500, but whether or not businesses can extract more than $3500 of value from their interactions with you to make it worthwhile for them to pay.
The combined revenue of the SP500 ~$18.28T, or ~14.8% of global GDP in 2025 (~118.35T). So is anthropic really saying that they expect to have 1.64x the revenue of the SP500 or that the total addressable revenue for AI they suspect is $30T? That number is at least plausible but expect to earn 25% of global GDP is a bit whacky unless you've drunk a lot of koolaid
It's a Feynman path integral - integrated over all possible future trajectories of Anthropic, including those where they have a thriving business on Tatooine.
With how much money has changed hands or has been agreed to do so, aren't the people involved already rich beyond their wildest dreams?
Isn't that one of the most lucrative financial things seen at this scale, and one of its primary characteristics is that it was accomplished without profits?
Who wants to rock the boat anyway by introducing a truly unruly variable like that at this late date?
As you mock them, notice that they again emotionally provoked the public, using words that disrupt people's feeling of safety and stability and therefore which bypass their cognitive processes and hit directly in their emotions and alarm. That's the goal.
The mocking is usually an attempt to get back some equilibrium, to regain leverage, to make the scary threat into something smaller.
So it looks like their tactic worked yet again. Why is it a goal? One aim is to seize and hold the initiative, and also to make you compliant when they do further transgressive or dangerous things.
So I'm guessing that's the same $billion passed around these companies 30,000 times, then, right? If we're just pulling numbers out of thin air, I think I want to make $6723 kajillion dollars this year, and if I don't, I'm going to whine!
This shit is getting so fucking exhausting. No, you're not going to make $30 trillion. Ever. It's second-hand embarrassing how high these idiots are after huffing their own farts.
I hope it crashes and burns -hard-, and the 'wealth' of these insipid billionaire sociopaths 'leading' these operations evaporates so they're just another crank on the street corner so they're easier to ignore.
Look. This is a new golden age of cocaine, because of the big cuts in everything in the US took away the cocaine busting operations in Colombia and Bolivia, because the revolutionaries that previously kept control of it stood down and became a political party and new, profit-driven cartels came up, and because battery technology means that narcosubs and similar drone things work much better than before (and they can be made remote-operated, so the cops can't do shit even when they find one). Wholesale prices have halved or gone down 60% to like, 12k usd / kilo, street prices commensurate. The huge new opportunities created by increased market size have increased competition and made the cartel nature of the cartels decrease. So always think of that when you look at people acting like this and having such megalomaniac goals.
It would be hilarious if the price of cocaine actually affected macroeconomics because of how it affects human behavior.
It actually might. It affected the mood of stockbrokers in the 1980s, both because of general energy levels and also because they were addicted and had to keep the money flowing. That must do something to macroeconomics.
Honestly you have a point. The decrease in cost of cocaine is very real
I see myself over $3000T in potential revenues too. You shall see. Please invest.
My wang has serious growth potential.
https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2000/05/26/this-could-be-...
The jokes from the dot-come bubble are back!
Well I’m getting on this train. Even if he comes in under, that’s still like infinity percent growth from current!
$30T? Why not $100T? $1000T? Why not $1 trillion trillion? If we're just pulling numbers out of our asses we may as well go big.
1 trillion trillion you say?! Sounds ridiculous, but if they can even reach 1% of that target, they'll make a killing! Sign me up!
Can be achieved with low/no margin financialization of revenue between a web of companies.
Echoes of Enron
"Our Neumann projections show us on track to achieve 15.3 heptillion dollars in annual revenue by the year 2030."
Data centering the universe is an improvement on paper clips I guess.
When all this crashes, future historians will look back and wonder how so many got hoodwinked by AI.
Some of these future historians might even be reading this Hacker News thread.
To any future historians reading this, many of us did know this AI stock bonanza was just a modern day tulip mania. Alas many wealthy people did get hoodwinked though.
2025 revenue numbers:
Seems likely that a company renting most of their hardware will generate multiples more cash than these established playersIs it realistic to expect every person on earth to pay them $3,500?
Of course, we just need to figure out how every person on earth would make at least $7,000 after they loose their job on the name of AI. (Assuming they need at least $3,500 for other basic needs).
I'm sure they can extract $3,500 worth of value from everyone's existence.
Agree with the absurdity. I also had to look at are there other absurd but real things. Estimating at 4.2 trillion in oil revenue is about $500 per person globally. Until you factor in the uneven distribution of that revenue what seems like an order of magnitude problem goes away.
There are of course many other holes to poke in a high level estimate like this.
Stretch the timeline out enough and add enough inflation and anything is possible!
Put 100% tariffs on everything and drive inflation and trade wars up.
Their friends control the Central Banks and the printing will continue until $30T buys you a loaf of bread
Yeah. I see this estimate as either A) hot air (my serious take), or B) a dire warning of out of control inflation, or C) a prediction that they'll be a going concern in 500 years when $30T is in fact an average corporate revenue figure if the USD still exists by then.
a) No. That is not realistic. Some would pay much more, most others way less.
b) If they get $3500 + x in return, why not? The pie is not fixed.
I have completed stopped using Anthropic since Kimi 3 released, and only ever K3 and Codex nowadays. I pay for K3, and get Codex and Claude free from work. Almost everyone I know prefers Codex to Claude.
All my friends know that Sam Altman uses astroturf as carpeting in his office.
In fact, we should put an AI Tax on everything you buy, because AI was used somewhere to make it
The question isn't whether or not every person pays $3500, but whether or not businesses can extract more than $3500 of value from their interactions with you to make it worthwhile for them to pay.
Before you dump it, you have to pump it...
In other words, we are to see a media barrage leading up to the IPO to get retail investors to jump on the stock.
There is still no way to search or filter your list of projects in the Claude sidebar, or get it to show you the active ones.
Sure there is. You've been able to search/sort/filter/group for a while now.
Would love to know - how?
Ah, so it's not just their products that hallucinate.
The only obstacle is everyone using it for everything
The combined revenue of the SP500 ~$18.28T, or ~14.8% of global GDP in 2025 (~118.35T). So is anthropic really saying that they expect to have 1.64x the revenue of the SP500 or that the total addressable revenue for AI they suspect is $30T? That number is at least plausible but expect to earn 25% of global GDP is a bit whacky unless you've drunk a lot of koolaid
That is a typo. It is a Q not a T ! How could we have missed it
I'm sure Sam and Dario have a bottle of Cinco Comas sitting on that high shelf...
Puts once they IPO
What are they currently making?
Over what period of time?
It's a Feynman path integral - integrated over all possible future trajectories of Anthropic, including those where they have a thriving business on Tatooine.
I feel like I'm a comedian saying this, but of course per year.
They should focus on fixing claude code, as I just canceled my 200/month subscription for codex because it's quality has degraded so much.
They’re focused on curing all cancers in 5 years. Curing claude code is beneath them.
I remember how 3 years ago the consensus, even here, was it was a fad or unsustainable.
As far as I am aware, they have yet to make a single dollar in profit.
At some point selling a dollar for 5 cents stops being a viable strategy.
With how much money has changed hands or has been agreed to do so, aren't the people involved already rich beyond their wildest dreams?
Isn't that one of the most lucrative financial things seen at this scale, and one of its primary characteristics is that it was accomplished without profits?
Who wants to rock the boat anyway by introducing a truly unruly variable like that at this late date?
Sure, the revenue per unit looks bad, but we’ll make it up in volume!
You think $30 trillion projected growth is sustainable?
It still is unsustainable.
Yep, 92% of estimated US GDP in 2026. That sounds totally plausible to me.
Or ~25% of the world's GDP.
It's just 25 % of world GDP bro, and only slightly more than double the projected worldwide construction market in 2028.
That's awesome! I also predict that Leopold Aschenbrenner will be the world's first trillionaire under 30!
PS: Not.
Honestly though, if they legitimately achieve RSI, I feel like all bets are off and anything could happen.
This is delusional. Are you ready for the biggest short ever?
As you mock them, notice that they again emotionally provoked the public, using words that disrupt people's feeling of safety and stability and therefore which bypass their cognitive processes and hit directly in their emotions and alarm. That's the goal.
The mocking is usually an attempt to get back some equilibrium, to regain leverage, to make the scary threat into something smaller.
So it looks like their tactic worked yet again. Why is it a goal? One aim is to seize and hold the initiative, and also to make you compliant when they do further transgressive or dangerous things.
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Now AI companies are playing with ridiculous Enron-level accounting tricks to justify their already inflated valuations?
How else are they going to get rich selling something for a tenth of what it costs them?
Enron did it for years and the senior managers became fabulously wealthy.
It’s heartening to see that most of HN is starting to call shenanigans on these ridiculous numbers.
About time.
So I'm guessing that's the same $billion passed around these companies 30,000 times, then, right? If we're just pulling numbers out of thin air, I think I want to make $6723 kajillion dollars this year, and if I don't, I'm going to whine!
This shit is getting so fucking exhausting. No, you're not going to make $30 trillion. Ever. It's second-hand embarrassing how high these idiots are after huffing their own farts.
I hope it crashes and burns -hard-, and the 'wealth' of these insipid billionaire sociopaths 'leading' these operations evaporates so they're just another crank on the street corner so they're easier to ignore.
[dead]