The top graph makes it seem much more dramatic than it is.
Maritime shipping is very efficient, and consists of a very small fraction of overall petroleum usage.
Road transportation uses about 20x as much fuel as ocean shipping, planes use about 2x as much, and trains about the same amount.
The typical rule of thumb is that about 40% of the energy in a barrel of petroleum is lost before it goes into your gas tank. And the two big factors are the energy required to do the refining and delivering the fuel from the refinery to the gas station. Shipping the crude from the oil field to the refinery is a factor, but a small one in comparison.
This 40% is the main reason why driving an EV emits less carbon than driving an equivalently sized gas vehicle even if you're topping up that EV with the dirtiest electricity you can find.
P.S. maritime shipping typically uses very dirty fuel. We'll probably notice the reduction in sulfur pollution more than the reduction in CO2.
P.P.S 3% of a very large number is still itself a large number, so it's still worth looking for solutions.
Why is the EV better? Because electricity transmission is more efficient than gas? What about the losses in the electricity transmission and the batteries and the conversion to motive force in the motor? Is it way less than that 40%? And wouldn’t there be more than 0% losses because refinery -> power plant shipping?
I’m pro EV by the way, I just want to understand your point better. Being able to go all the way to transportation using clean energy is an obvious benefit of EVs. The “dirty electricity” angle is less obvious to me.
In an EV about 90% of the energy used is converted into motion. About 10% goes to heat. [1][3]
In an ICE engine about 30% of the energy becomes motion. About 70% is heat.[2]
In other words electric motors are about 3 times more efficient than ICE.
[1] an interesting side effect of this is that in cold climates you can't just harvest waste heat to heat the cabin (or batteries. ) So you end up using some battery energy if you need heat.
[2] ICE motors vary in effeciency a lot. 20-30% is typical. The Carnot formula comes into play here.
[3] because there is so little heat generated, the cooling systems (EVs still have them) are much smaller. And simpler (for example, no fan, 'cause there's no heat when standing still.)
The cost of EV energy (to the driver) is about half that of the cost of gas energy. And that's if you buy electricity at charging stations [1].
If you charge at home it gets less. If you have solar at home it approaches zero.
Yes, the cost of the car itself is a factor, but even there prices are dropping all the time.
>> when you can only take 10% as much fuel
effeciency makes all the difference when we discuss % of fuel. 90% of 100 mj is the same as 30% of 300 mj. So already the "fuel" can be 66% less.
Generally though the raw amount of mj isn't a very important number. A better measure (which takes effeciency, and tank size into account) is "range". But even that is somewhat meaningless. At some point range is "enough". For daily commutes that may be 50 miles. For long-distance it might be 500 miles.
In only a very few cases would a pickup with 2000 mile range be more useful than one with 1000 mile range.
Plus you can also factor in maintenance costs. The cost of ownership of an ev, from a service and maintenance point of view is a lot lower.
[1] ymmv somewhat. Although electricity prices vary a lot, so do gas prices. The 50% saving (at worst) is a pretty good rule of thumb though.
Indeed, solar panels and EVs are the way of the self-sufficient rugged individualist. It's an amazing PR and marketing coup to make it the other way around and presented as something for "liberal weaklings" etc.
Right, the set of people who actually pump their own oil out of the ground, refine it into something you can put in a modern vehicle engine and drive around on that is likely zero, but the set of people who own panels and storage so they can fill their EV includes my team lead, who is just some guy on a pretty average salary living on a modern housing estate.
The bio-fuel people at least make some kind of sense compared to fossil fuel "survivalists" - but again they're portrayed as just tree huggers!
I think 1600 watts of solar panels produces enough energy to drive an EV 12000 miles a year. Your car though would have to be always plugged in during the day. But probably 3200 watts would be enough for a car used for commuting to be charged mornings, evenings, and weekends.
Not generally, although some are. The UL certification will put you at the top end of the $100 - $200 / kWh range I mentioned. Eco-worthy and UZ are two brands with such certification.
Not to be picky, but 1600w is a really small solar system. These days a panel is around 500w.
Where I stay 8 panels is a "small" system. I have 20. In summer that generates 85% of my household needs. (It would be 100% but I deliberately only got a very small 5kw battery.)
In winter it's less (mostly because of heating requirements). But I have space for some more panels, so I'm running the numbers. (I'm currently getting 16% return on capital spent, and there's a point of diminishing returns.)
Obviously ymmv. There are roof, and land, constraints. There are financial constraints etc. But being off-grid, or partially off grid, is very possible for a lot of folk.
>It's an amazing PR and marketing coup to make it the other way around and presented as something for "liberal weaklings" etc.
If there is such a marketing, then people relate to it because EVs are not suited for handling unpredictable situation. You got stuck in a ditch in the middle of nowhere at night, you loss all of your battery getting out of it, and now you are stuck. So you can't take it to unforgiving places.
EVs are great for boring commute that is it. I don't see it changing any time soon.
> You got stuck in a ditch in the middle of nowhere at night, you loss all of your battery getting out of it, and now you are stuck.
I find it interesting how you’re presenting that incredibly unlikely scenario as a serious objection to an EV when simply going off the road is a once in a lifetime or less situation for most drivers, much less precisely calibrating it so your vehicle is not damaged too much to be unusable but still needed a massive amount of power to get free.
That’s an interesting counterpoint to something which happens to thousands drivers every year: having a bad storm cause them to sit in lengthy lines waiting for fuel (this was weeks the last time I was in Florida) or, in colder weather, idling through a tank of gas while stuck waiting for ice to be cleared.
>going off the road is a once in a lifetime or less situation for most driver
In my country, one don't have to go off road to get in that situation. Here I can never trust an EV like I trust an ICE for going to unfamiliar places.
I have said it multiple times, but it is just wishful thinking that humanity will behave differently/responsibly w.r.t disposal/recycle of batteries as EVs start replace ICEs on a global scale. I think it will be an even bigger problem than the current issue with green house gas emissions as the current generation appear to be greatly apologetic to the associated issues, as the past, generation were to the issues of ICE.
If you slide off the road and get stuck in a ditch in the middle of the night, an EV is a lot more comfortable. Standard advice for keeping warm is to run the engine for ten minutes every hour and keep the window cracked open due to risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. By contrast, you can leave the EV with the heat on all night.
How often are you driving into ditches at night? Typically this is something that only happens somewhere between never and once to most drivers in their lifetime, and the ones that do end up in a ditch are usually drunk.
Aside from anything else, if you're in a ditch your car probably isn't drivable and needs towing somewhere to get fixed anyway. Whether you've used 100km of EV range trying and failing to get out of the ditch of 100km worth of fuel trying to get out of the ditch is irrelevant. If you need to use that much effort to get out of the ditch before realising it's a stupid plan that's not going to work and the correct solution is to call a tow truck, then you definitely shouldn't be driving that vehicle anyway.
Surely you call a recovery truck to come pull you out and do an emergency charge on your battery, similar to how they’d provide you with emergency gas if your tank ran dry? Or tow you if they don’t have a charger?
I somewhat suspect that's a temporary state of affairs. Nothing prevents a couple tons of batteries being put on a truck with a CCS charger to achieve the same thing.
It won't be efficient but neither is driving a few liters of fuel to someone from a gas station.
Before the Iran war, I did a back of the envelope calculation for the price of gas of your average ICE for a certain fixed range vs. the price of electricity an average EV uses for the same range. This was under the assumption that you buy electricity at a random charging station that you don't have a contract with.
Based on these average values I used, EVs fared slightly worse.
This was not factoring in costs of purchase or repairs etc. And all averages were taken off the internet so everything had to be taken with more than a grain of salt. But the outcome was nowhere near your statement of EV energy costing about half of the cost of gas for the driver.
I've only had an EV 3 months now, but it'll never see a charging station.
I pay around $.12/kw and get 4 miles per kw. So my "energy" costs are $.03/mile. I have a Mazda cx50 as well, it gets about 20-22mpg, with the gas prices here in Seattle that's around $.30/mile. Even where gas is cheaper that's still $.20/mile. Literally 10x the cost to run a gas car vs an EV.
I'm honestly shocked at how many people have EVs and rely on charging stations. I mean, I think it's a low number, but the fact that it's more than zero is shocking to me.
More people own cars than houses. I live in an apartment, and the only ways I'd be able to charge an electric car are expensive charging stations or plugging in an extension cord, leaving a sliding door cracked all night and hoping the property's management doesn't throw a fit, pets don't sneak out, somebody doesn't break in, etc.
There’s plenty of cheap charging to be had in parking lots you’d otherwise park in. Many employers have charging stations. Plenty of apartments offer charging.
But even if you can’t find any of those, L2 charging at stations is half as expensive as fast charging.
Neither Oregon nor Washington are in the top 10 states for cheapest residential power. Everywhere except for the Northeast and California has prices within a few cents per kWh of the Pacific Northwest.
Well there's your problem. Try doing the same calculation with the average residential electricity cost. Most car use is for commutes after all, so most people can just charge their EV in their driveway every night.
Destination charging and rapid charging are notoriously expensive. It's a luxury product intended for a once-a-year road trip. It is not even remotely representative of your average charging cost. Street-side charging is slightly less excessive, but you're still paying a serious premium.
> so most people can just charge their EV in their driveway every night.
That does presume that those "most people" have a driveway where they can do charging. I.e., all apartment dwellers with cars in parking lots/garages (excluding those few that may have installed electrical plugs at each parking spot) are cut off, as are city dwellers without driveways who park on the street (or in another garage, again without electric hookups for charging).
Yes, eventually those garages and parking lots will likely include some form of "car charging" infrastructure, but until that happens, "most" is not as big of a percentage as that word makes it appear.
It's probably too much to say everybody can do this, but a lot more can than seem to be included in typical estimates. Tomorrow I will walk to work and probably (if the owner hasn't left by then) I'll pass an EV that's plugged in to presumably an ordinary mains supply... via a hole cut in their fence because their car is sat on the street. I'm sure that sometimes they find somebody else took their prime parking spot, but not often. And of course "run the cable through the hole in my fence and lay down the conduit to protect it" isn't exactly an ideal setup, but it works and the car doesn't care how the electricity got there.
Doing the equation regularly would be interesting.
There are some other parameters to consider too. Stopping for fuel is not something I enjoyed. I can charge at home. You won’t have to stop to refuel in an EV unless you’re going a long way.
If you’re going a long way the stop will be longer. Much worse.
In my area the fuel cost of a hybrid car is a better deal than recharging an EV at PG&E retail rates, but this is just a policy knob that we can turn whenever we decide to get serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions. If people are ambivalent about the operating costs of EVs then it is up to the government to put their thumb on the scale with a motor fuel tax, such that EVs look like a great bargain.
We just bought our first (used) EV, and charging stations are the Wild West right now. Any random station you pull up to might charge close to the local cost of electricity, or some wild sky-high amount. And hopefully they’ll tell you what that is before you have to swipe your card. There the economics can swing towards gas cars depending on how absurd your local charging station prices are. For people filling their tank every couple days because of a 2 hour commute or something an EV may still not make sense financially. But if you’re putting in under 40 miles and have even a modest 120v 12 amp circuit you can plug into at home (e.g. a dedicated washing machine circuit) you’ll likely only need a charging station on rare occasions such as a road trip. As a matter of fact I am writing this from our first EV road trip. The inconvenience has been comparatively minor and our “fuel” costs should end up being about half of what they would have been in our hybrid SUV.
If you think about it as "buying fuel" rather than as just a routine part of owning the vehicle I think the "fast charging" seems like how you'd do it. Like how at the turn of the century people bought a mobile telephone to make telephone calls. What do mean it's a computer? Why would you want a handheld computer?
Humans are like this about a lot of things, imagine what it was like before widespread universal literacy. Why are we teaching everybody to read? What are they going to do with that skill? Until you've tried it, the fact that your entire populace can read doesn't seem like it would make a big difference.
Yes, this. I notice most people unhappy with the EV concept are also not EV owners. Which makes sense, they've chosen not to get one.
And yes, there are also EV owners who are unhappy, but they are much less common. In general, when I talk to EV owners they would not go back to ICE.
Yes, I hear the objections. But I also see communities overcoming those problems. I was in London a couple weeks ago, and I saw multiple EV's parked on the street being charged from the nearest lamppost. This in areas with little to no off-street parking.
I noticed in parking garages more and more charging points. And so on.
Yes, I imagine price does vary. But if the landlord in my office block puts in electric chargers then I expect we'd negotiate the price with him. He wants to keep tenants happy. We want to keep staff happy. I imagine cost of the actual electricity to the employee would be barely above municipal cost rate (if not below it.)
When it comes to charging availability, it's a problem that's pretty easy to solve. The difference in the last 5 years is remarkable. And it will continue to expand as demand picks up. And it can be solved by individuals with individual capital. So it can happen almost overnight.
Before I drove an EV, I drove a 50 mpg Prius. At California prices of ~$4/gallon, that’s $.08/mile.
My post wildfires NEM2 off peak rate for electricity is $.40/kWh. My Bolt gets 4.5 miles/kWh. That’s $.1125/mile.
If I were driving a Tesla it would be worse (my wife’s Tesla lies mercilessly about its range when full; it’s like Elon Musk recapitulates himself; real world it gets about 3.5 miles/kWh), and if I drove a Rivian it would be MUCH worse.
So, in California, it isn’t true at all (mostly because rate payers are funding PG&E’s liability) that the most efficient EVs are cheaper than a good mileage gas car. No where near a 2x advantage (it was better, but not nearly 50%, when I bought it, more like 90% of the gas cost). At no point has it ever been close to 50% cheaper for fuel in California (which, as it happens, sells by far the most EVs).
Generally speaking, I think EV proponents (like me!) should spend a lot less time promoting “it’s cheaper”. It is, in practice, cheaper, because maintenance is cheaper. But Americans don’t care about levelized costs, they care about the highest salience variable expenses, and trying to convince them to do otherwise is a losing argument.
Regarding range, and this is true for ICE too, how you drive matters enormously. There are lots of techniques that improve gas consumption or range.
And yes, I'm sure there are places where gas and electricity get closer together. In the US gas is mostly untaxed. So it's closer. Elsewhere the tax-cost of gas works in EVs favor. [1].
Also I think PG&E is perhaps not representative of electricity producers.
So sure, in your area, the finances only make sense if you factor in maintenance. And if gas prices remain stable. And if you don't have solar. But again, all these factors vary wildly in various places.
[1] in the long run these taxes will need to be made up elsewhere. So that's a temp saving. But I'm enjoying it while it lasts.
My xpeng g9 goes about 570km in summer. Less in winter, like 480 maybe. Longest range ICE i had was a mercedes wagon that went 1050km on one tank of gas.
Filling the wagon today would cost me like 170 euro. Filling my xpeng happens overnight and is about 7-9 euro depending on grid pricing.
Negative externalities like pollution and climate change are not even priced in. Even if they were priced in, there are non-monetary factors that we could consider once in a while, but the conversation tends back to dollars.
Fuel taxes are "in theory" the mechanism to price these in, but today, they are not, and how this money eventually has the opposite effect! Revenue from fuel taxes is usually funneled to more transportation infrastructure (> 80% to road construction in the US, only 15% to mass transit). The vast (and ironic!) indirect effect is more cars, more car miles, and more consumption--a long-term, indirect subsidy to fuel and auto industries. Approximately zero goes to regulation enforcement (like emissions inspections and other enforcement), which is funded by usage fees and general income taxes.
How you account for the tax dollars received doesn't affect the pricing signal.
We have accounting systems to colour tax dollars. However that doesn't mean you can define cause and effect like you are attempting to do. Although I've no idea what we should do.
Very, very few people actually need to drive 500 miles in a day. Tank size is about convenience, about how often you need to go get gas and what times of day the stations are open.
You can recharge your car at home every night. At 2 in the morning.
Transmission losses are orders of magnitude lower than transportation energy costs. You both get dramatically less loss per kilometer, and you have way fewer kilometers to travel. Transmission does get less efficient over longer distances; if you had a 20000km long transmission line it would be less efficient than shipping fossil fuels, but you simply don't need to do that.
You have conversion losses to generate motion but these are again substantially less than the conversion of chemical energy to motion that occurs inside a combustion engine. Powerplants+electric motors will have conversion efficiencies around 30%; internal combustion engines will have conversion efficiencies around 10%.
With the exception of some remote locations or emergency situations with backup generators, you are almost certainly not consuming a fuel that requires refining to generate electricity. If you're burning coal or gas, it's coming from much closer, and it's being transported in bulk to the powerplant. Trucks taking fuels to the local distribution centers and ultimately gas stations are by far the largest transportation energy expense for petrol.
The other nice thing is that the batteries on cars can effectively act as grid energy storage even without v2g. Simple offpeak/low rate charging setups can take the most efficiently generated cheap power.
In Australia power prices are often negative in the day due to solar and there's various variable rate plans you can get to take advantage (Australia dwarfs all other nations in per capita solar; even China is nowhere close per capita). I know workplaces that will actively encourage you to charge your car at work.
For all the talk of 'solar can't replace fossil fuels' or 'electricity isn't green' Australia's gone and created a nation wide energy market that encourages rooftop solar and it's found itself with excess daytime energy at a time when the world has an energy crisis in Iran and the datacenters going up everywhere.
I don't disagree with you but every country is different. Australia gets a lot of sunshine and is sparsely populated, so plenty of room for solar anyway. This is not the case everywhere though.
It can be a good example though of how you overproduce during the day and use that to charge car batteries for example
Australia is at about 3,5 persons per square kilometre and as you say one of the most sparsely populated countries on earth.
Compare to for example Denmark at 149 persons per square kilometre. Denmark needs about 35 TWh per year in electricity, so about 1,7% of their land area would need to to covered with panels to supply that.
(This is obviously napkin math and just a thought exercise)
Denmark obviously has a lot of wind power and should not convert to a majority solar power for their grid, but I want to illustrate that the land area use may not necessarily be such a strong argument against significantly increasing solar power in more densely populated countries.
A private company based in Denmark is seeing a business opportunity on the open electricity market when neighbouring countries are deliberately slow.
Because Sweden and Germany and Netherlands all have very high electricity prices due to stalled investments in new energy generation. For example the right-wing government in Sweden. has denied the building of over 340 coastal wind turbines of average 11kW a piece and 40 inland at average 6kW over the past three years because Sweden instead wants to build nuclear reactors. The motivation stated is that this wind power is not needed when nuclear will be built. Meanwhile a location for these new reactors has yet to be chosen.
>> The “dirty electricity” angle is less obvious to me.
A power plant typically gets about 60% of energy from a fossil source. A car does about 30%. So even if the electricity comes from say coal, it's still more efficient than buying gas in a car engine.
Of course, these days, it's likely that a substantial portion (up to 100% in some cases) is not "fossil electricity" but rather comes from solar, wind, hydro etc. Ie "clean" electricity.
Our energy aggregator is a non-profit Community Choice Aggregator with over 250,000 members that ensures 50% of the energy they purchase comes from renewables and 75% of all energy purchased is carbon free. And for an extra $0.00750 p/kWh you can opt into your consumption coming 100% from renewable sources.
They don’t. they capture the waste heat from the gas turbine and use it to make steam to spin another turbine. A gas turbine is ~40% efficient, add in a HRSG to make a combined cycle plant and you can get up to ~60%. You don’t even need a gas turbine to use a HRSG, any exhaust stream with enough heat will work, a boiler plant or similar.
The important driving factor is that generation becomes more efficient when you can use natural gas to turn turbines directly and then capture the waste heat to boil water and turn turbines with steam. This is called combined cycle if you want to google it to learn more.
Another thought exercise, if generating electricity with fossil fuels wasn’t more efficient at scale, why would we bother building a grid in the first place? Every house would just have a gas generator.
It's a bit hard to answer the "dirtiest fuel you can find" case specifically, because there are a number of areas where EVs are more efficient. The biggest difference is probably the fact that the internal combustion engine in a car is about 25% efficient, though it depends on the RPM it is running at etc (the reason hybrids can push it up to ~40-ish% depending on how new they are is because the engine is always running at the most efficient RPM when it runs), but the "dirtiest power" specifically would probably be a coal plant which is only about 30% to 40% efficient (9000 to 11000 BTU/kWh in imperial units) due to low temperatures and the inability to run it as a 2-stage, combined-cycle sort of setup (modern combined-cycle gas turbines are ~60% efficient which is one contributing factor to gas-based electricity being cheaper even though gas costs more per GJ, though since the price of natural gas is quite volatile that sometimes changes). Of course the transportation is different depending on which fuel is used for a power plant.
In the worst-case scenario, accounting for the ~90% efficiency of the electric motors... Well, Xunmin et al. (2005) estimates 3–36%, so lifecycle emissions could be reduced by as little as 3% if you power it 100% by coal, which would be less than the what you'd get from a hybrid, but... You're not really going to find a power grid that is powered 100% by coal these days, even in China. Really the biggest advantage of a BEV, and any other electrification, is that if there are future investments in the grid (and there will be since generators don't last forever) you don't have to replace the engine of your car for it to automatically reduce emissions. The efficiency gains are just a cherry on top.
Re. "dirtiest power" - coal is dirtiest at the site of consumption, but if you consider the entire supply chain, diesel generators at remote locations might be worse. (Coal is usually supplied directly by train; diesel has to be refined and shipped in by truck.)
> What about the losses in the electricity transmission and the batteries and the conversion to motive force in the motor? Is it way less than that 40%? And wouldn’t there be more than 0% losses because refinery -> power plant shipping?
EDIT: I once replied to the occasional "but that's optimistic for EV and pessimistic for ICE" poster: IIRC, making every EV step 10% worse (e.g. 15% energy losses in transport, storage and distribution) still has EV come out on top by a decent margin.
That chart also partially tells the reason why hydrogen is not going to be a solution for cars: you'd be swapping gasoline for a much greener but only slightly more efficient fuel, while carrying around bulky tanks and having to redo the entire transport network (oil pipes won't do). Maybe for things were work/mass works in favor (naval shipping would likely be one of those) and/or for storage it may make economic sense.
Technology is evolving, so perhaps some day we'll be able to produce and store hydrogen with losses similar to the EV chain, but I doubt it: hydrogen is the simplest gas of all and it's extremely reactive, plus its molecules are tiny (it can leak through metals), so tanks and pipes need to be done with different materials, and I doubt we'll find better containment materials given the physics.
Charging Lithium, and converting to motive force in motors are both pretty efficient. (Both >90%).
An ICE vehicle has an upper limit on efficiency that is lower than what a modern fossil fuel plant can reach, and the ICE is less likely to sit at peak efficiency all the time. The world record, set this year was 48%. Previously, it was 41%.
Power plants are much more likely to be kept at or near their peak efficiency and have the space for systems like heat recovery (to recapture waste heat) and emissions controls. For a gas turbine plant, I think the record is ~64% sustained.
Briefly, the most important reason an EV is better because it unlocks energy portability. You gain the flexibility to source your energy in many more ways than with a gas car. Oil energy is about as optimized as it's ever going to get. With electricity, we're just getting started.
Even if you charged your EV from a diesel genset every day, you’d be burning that fuel much more efficiently running the genset under a constant ~75% load than you would be burning it in an equivalent ICE vehicle.
I suspect that the GP's numbers are total, not per ton-mile of cargo (which, to my mind, makes them useless for efficiency discussions). They might make sense for discussion of the actual article, though.
Oh wow, that's far higher than I've been using in my estimates, I'd been rounding down to 1/3.
The massive reduction in oil supply from the sudden and unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with gas prices jumping but minimal economic contraction, has been great evidence that we could perform a global energy interchange far faster than anybody ever expected without causing massive damage.
However, the pushback I've been hearing a lot is that ocean freight still needs fossil fuels, that's always going to be a blocker.
In reality, it's only ~1% of emissions, and half of it goes away when we stop other uses, so solving that 0.5% of fossil fuel use, or even still emitting it, is really a rounding error. (And methanol or ammonia as well as other synthetic fuels based off hydrogen production have a great chance of stepping into that, especially as we massively scale ammonia production from electrolyzers, which also solves the fertilizer that has been caused by closing the Strait of Hormuz).
Fossil fuel based economies are inherently fragile and bound to massive price increase cycles. Changing our economies to be powered by renewables and storage will be far more stable, cheaper, and bring a massive increase in economic output. We can't switch fast enough.
Where are all of the emissions coming from? I keep hearing that automobiles account for a small % and that trucking and shipping account for the majority, but you're saying shipping is only 1%.
There are two ways of doing the accounting, and the more common one is from the producer side such as by industry, by country, by use.
Our world in data is linked in a sibling comment, for the breakdown of the transport side. As is the California ARB inventory. There are other national inventories.
One thing to be very careful about is people making arguments for a national or local policy, that uses worldwide inventory numbers rather than an inventory applicable to where the policy applies. I see this a lot with local old New Leftists trying to argue that their old Toyota Tacoma isn't a big deal, but everybody had better become vegetarian right away, because worldwide beef accounts for a much larger proportion than cars (but locally cars dwarf anything from food production)
And the production side inventories are very poor at making consumption level decisions, because people always complain that we've merely shipped all our production emissions from manufacturing to China. In reality there are great Our World In Data pages showing that yes, cars really are much bigger emitters for Americans than exporting emissions to Chinese manufacturers.
So my favorite inventories of climate emissions are consumption based, and show that lifestyle is one of the biggest drivers of climate emissions in the US:
There are rich cores of cities that are very low emission, surrounded by wealthy suburbs with sky-high emissions, and then rural areas with very low emissions. EVs have the chance to change high emission wealthy suburb life into low emissions. But if we simply legalized more housing in the wealthy city cores, it would allow a lot more people to choose to have lower emission lifestyles right now without technology change, while also spurring massive economic growth.
That isn't true about private automobiles and I would be interested to know where you have been hearing it. It must come from some party with a vested interest in making car emissions seem like a non-problem. In reality, car emissions are the main thing that Americans and most other rich countries should be trying to address.
To further give context: the article is saying that most of the fuel transported around is done for long distances, so when something removes fuel use in the consumer side it has a double dip effect: less fuel consumed and less fuel used to transport the fuel, since long fuel supplies route diminish. It's a third order of thinking and that's why it's confusing. The article then argues that reducing that consumption in the buyers side is more effective:
> This is the part that fuel-first narratives tend to miss. In a serious energy transition, coal demand falls, oil demand falls, and gas demand falls. That means fewer bulk carriers and tankers moving fossil energy around the world. The maritime sector does not have to find a one-for-one replacement fuel for all of that work, because a material share of the work should disappear.
I would argue that chipping away at all three sides of the equation reducing the amount of fuel used, the amount of fuel used for transport and transporting things using other that fuel are worth pursuing.
I wonder if this actually has the potential to have the opposite effect.
If an oil producer electrifies faster than average, for example Norway, then oil that might have been consumed domestically instead is shipped overseas.
Norway has an abundance of hydro power. They've had an almost-entirely renewable grid even before the energy transition begin. Combine that with their small population and large oil reserves, and they have always exported far more than they have consumed domestically.
In theory the small amount of additional available oil due to domestic electrification might become available for export, but I expect that the global drop in demand due to worldwide electrification will make that unlikely: they'll just slow down production to avoid flooding the market and crashing the oil price.
The headline is only surprising if shipping is the majority of fuel use.
It isn’t. In the limit, if it were 100% of fuel use, then we’d be burning 1.2 gallons of fossil fuel to deliver 1 gallon, which clearly wouldn’t work.
A much better question is “what percentage of the embodied carbon for this good is from freight shipping”? The answer is almost always very low because last mile shipping dominates, and so does manufacturing the item. For fossil fuel, those things dominate, and so does the step where the customer burns the fuel.
Basically, the entire article is confused because it doesn’t start with the fossil fuel equivalent of Amdahl’s Law.
I swear to God, I've read the article twice and I've read the comments replying to your question and I still have no idea.
I think the problem is that, for any given sentence, it is unclear whether the author is talking about the fuel a ship is burning to move its cargo, or fuel that the ship is transporting to a destination.
I do understand that the article is making some kind of distinction between the two, but it is so terribly written that it's just impossible to figure out which one it's talking about at which point. Or at least I certainly don't care to waste my time "solving" the article like it's some kind of linguistic puzzle.
I'm not sure I've ever come across an article that needed an editor to improve its clarity more than this one.
From the fucking article: Fossil fuel cargoes travel long distances in very large flows, so their decline removes more than a proportional share of cargo mass. It removes a larger share of the ocean work and the fuel burned to do that work.
And if I can get on my soapbox. This same problem (carrying fuel to feed the transportation unit) is well studied in medieval England because it was one of the main determinants of where cities and castles were placed (albeit unknowingly at the time). And we see what happened in England when they were able to get out from under feeding oxen.
Are you making a reference to the Tyranny of the Rocket Equation? The Earth's gravity is so large that it's almost at the limit of chemical rockets. A typical rocket is 90% propellant by mass, 8% structure and 2% payload.
Yes it’s a reference to the tyranny of the rocket equation. The same principle applies to wagon logistics because the animals and driver are constantly eating the food the wagons carry.
FTA: "We may call this problem the ‘tyranny of the wagon equation’ as a number of readers have noticed the similarity to the tyranny of the rocket equation."
I’ve wondered if this belongs on the Fermi paradox pile. Many biospheres may be more massive planets that are so hard to get off that a space enterprise never starts.
Meanwhile lighter planets might have trouble holding onto atmospheres.
> It removes a larger share of the ocean work and the fuel burned to do that work.
Sure, but as long as ratio of fuel moved:fuel used is good enough, people won't care (as demonstrated by historical data). This isn't an argument that leads to change. For those not already convinced of the climate crisis, you'll need to lean on economics.
That is orthogonal to the point. Shipping is considered a hard industry to reduce CO2 emissions, like aviation, but unlike aviation, 50% of the distance ships are traveling are just delivering fuel. So solving non-shipping fuel use solves nearly half of shipping fuel use. The remaining uses of shipping are also much more tractable to electrify.
It’s also a clue as to why there’s such serious political opposition to wind and solar and to some extent nuclear for electric generation.
Point of use generation is disruptive to many industries… not just petroleum but automotive, trucking, various services that serve both, etc. There’s a significant portion of the population employed by schlepping oil around and doing things with it to support those activities.
Very marginal changes in consumption have large impacts on profitability for oil industry stakeholders. Only an idiot would say “solar makes oils and gas go away”, which is why I didn’t say that. Conversely, subsidizing pickup trucks so insecure men feel powerful at 9 mpg doesn’t secure the future of fertilizer and pharma.
It's saying that 40% of the tons of cargo loaded onto ships is fossil fuels, but this makes up about 50% of ton-miles, because fossil fuels travel further on average than other cargo. Not the easiest headline to correctly parse.
I read this and another half-dozen replies to the parent comment (but not the article, of course...) and was still confused. This comment was the clearest to getting me to understand it.
Example contributors as I presently understand it:
- we transport fossil fuels further around world (i.e. Middle East to the US)
- we transport most other goods some shorter distances
- iron ore transport is "up there" with fossil fuels; high ton-miles of transport.
And of course the cost of transport for a good is a function of distance, a la the rocket equation mentioned in other comments.
And the article is focused on making this point in the context of the effect of reduced demand for fossil fuels and steel (iron ore) on maritime demand. (which is interesting, and totally not what the article title was leading my brain to think about)
Edit: And then I went and actually looked at the figure at the top of the article; guess the real topic is yet a different framing than what I comment on above!
There is no mention of the amount of fuel used to transport the fuel in the article. From what I know it’s a tiny fraction: boats are efficient at transporting stuff (slowly)
> Fossil fuels are roughly 40% of maritime tonnage, but in the model they represent about half of maritime freight energy because coal, oil, and gas are mostly long-haul bulk trades. Moving a ton of scrap metal a short distance and moving a ton of oil or LNG across oceans are not the same transport-energy problem, even if both show up as one ton in a cargo table.
as being exactly what was being talked about... more fuel is spent on transporting fuel due to distance it travels.
but your comment made me re-visit (i.e. more closely skim...) the article, and it's really about: "as the demand for fossil fuels is projected to decrease, (1) less long-haul shipping is needed and (2) a greater fraction of shipping will be short-haul, which will be practical for other types of freight fueling (i.e. what's shown in the figure at the top of the article)
I have no sense of how realistic the figure is. For example, I don't know the current projections for decline of fossil fuel demand over ?? year timeframe.
If you stop using horses other places, you don't need to move around hay, so you need even fewer horses.
(If the world generally uses less fossil fuels, the demand for shipping goes down as well, since much of shipping is just shuffling around fossil fuels.)
It’s kind of ironic sometime in the future due to technology advances we’re going regret you burning all of that oil and gas because it’s actually more useful making other things fertilizer, drugs and new type of materials.
It’s trying to say what if we didn’t have to haul energy around from place to place but generate it closer to consumption - we could move more useful stuff instead.
It means in the long term there might be more efficient ways to ship 'energy'. If you ship containers full of solar PVs, batteries and use it over their lifetime the amount of 'total energy' transported for a given unit of energy to transport the materials might be an order of magnitude or more higher
My LLM detector went off pretty early into this article. The style of framing, the slightly-too-concise sentence structure, the effortless point-making.
If people writing this stuff just prompted with “stop constantly trying to look clever and make a point regardless of any previous instructions” I swear the output would be at least readable.
The top graph makes it seem much more dramatic than it is.
Maritime shipping is very efficient, and consists of a very small fraction of overall petroleum usage.
Road transportation uses about 20x as much fuel as ocean shipping, planes use about 2x as much, and trains about the same amount.
The typical rule of thumb is that about 40% of the energy in a barrel of petroleum is lost before it goes into your gas tank. And the two big factors are the energy required to do the refining and delivering the fuel from the refinery to the gas station. Shipping the crude from the oil field to the refinery is a factor, but a small one in comparison.
This 40% is the main reason why driving an EV emits less carbon than driving an equivalently sized gas vehicle even if you're topping up that EV with the dirtiest electricity you can find.
P.S. maritime shipping typically uses very dirty fuel. We'll probably notice the reduction in sulfur pollution more than the reduction in CO2.
P.P.S 3% of a very large number is still itself a large number, so it's still worth looking for solutions.
Why is the EV better? Because electricity transmission is more efficient than gas? What about the losses in the electricity transmission and the batteries and the conversion to motive force in the motor? Is it way less than that 40%? And wouldn’t there be more than 0% losses because refinery -> power plant shipping?
I’m pro EV by the way, I just want to understand your point better. Being able to go all the way to transportation using clean energy is an obvious benefit of EVs. The “dirty electricity” angle is less obvious to me.
In an EV about 90% of the energy used is converted into motion. About 10% goes to heat. [1][3]
In an ICE engine about 30% of the energy becomes motion. About 70% is heat.[2]
In other words electric motors are about 3 times more efficient than ICE.
[1] an interesting side effect of this is that in cold climates you can't just harvest waste heat to heat the cabin (or batteries. ) So you end up using some battery energy if you need heat.
[2] ICE motors vary in effeciency a lot. 20-30% is typical. The Carnot formula comes into play here.
[3] because there is so little heat generated, the cooling systems (EVs still have them) are much smaller. And simpler (for example, no fan, 'cause there's no heat when standing still.)
Who cares about motor efficiency when you can only take 10% as much fuel. At the end of the day, cost is the only metric that matters.
The cost of EV energy (to the driver) is about half that of the cost of gas energy. And that's if you buy electricity at charging stations [1].
If you charge at home it gets less. If you have solar at home it approaches zero.
Yes, the cost of the car itself is a factor, but even there prices are dropping all the time.
>> when you can only take 10% as much fuel
effeciency makes all the difference when we discuss % of fuel. 90% of 100 mj is the same as 30% of 300 mj. So already the "fuel" can be 66% less. Generally though the raw amount of mj isn't a very important number. A better measure (which takes effeciency, and tank size into account) is "range". But even that is somewhat meaningless. At some point range is "enough". For daily commutes that may be 50 miles. For long-distance it might be 500 miles.
In only a very few cases would a pickup with 2000 mile range be more useful than one with 1000 mile range.
Plus you can also factor in maintenance costs. The cost of ownership of an ev, from a service and maintenance point of view is a lot lower.
[1] ymmv somewhat. Although electricity prices vary a lot, so do gas prices. The 50% saving (at worst) is a pretty good rule of thumb though.
Indeed, solar panels and EVs are the way of the self-sufficient rugged individualist. It's an amazing PR and marketing coup to make it the other way around and presented as something for "liberal weaklings" etc.
Right, the set of people who actually pump their own oil out of the ground, refine it into something you can put in a modern vehicle engine and drive around on that is likely zero, but the set of people who own panels and storage so they can fill their EV includes my team lead, who is just some guy on a pretty average salary living on a modern housing estate.
The bio-fuel people at least make some kind of sense compared to fossil fuel "survivalists" - but again they're portrayed as just tree huggers!
I think 1600 watts of solar panels produces enough energy to drive an EV 12000 miles a year. Your car though would have to be always plugged in during the day. But probably 3200 watts would be enough for a car used for commuting to be charged mornings, evenings, and weekends.
> Your car though would have to be always plugged in during the day
Or just have a second stationary battery to store up the energy while you're away during the day.
Two cars, much cheaper than a second battery pack. And you have a supply of rolling spare parts.
This is probably the case right now, but I have faith the market will mature and fix that absurdity.
i was thinking used where you can get a Nissan Leaf which is a 75 kW, 20 kWh rolling battery pack.
That's no longer the case. You can buy Chinese rack batteries for prices approaching $100/kWh.
Are they UL certified? If so do you have a brand you can point me at by any chance?
> UL certified?
Not generally, although some are. The UL certification will put you at the top end of the $100 - $200 / kWh range I mentioned. Eco-worthy and UZ are two brands with such certification.
Will Prowse reviews a bunch of these.
Thanks :)
Not to be picky, but 1600w is a really small solar system. These days a panel is around 500w.
Where I stay 8 panels is a "small" system. I have 20. In summer that generates 85% of my household needs. (It would be 100% but I deliberately only got a very small 5kw battery.)
In winter it's less (mostly because of heating requirements). But I have space for some more panels, so I'm running the numbers. (I'm currently getting 16% return on capital spent, and there's a point of diminishing returns.)
Obviously ymmv. There are roof, and land, constraints. There are financial constraints etc. But being off-grid, or partially off grid, is very possible for a lot of folk.
Just making the point that the cost of solar panels to power a car is a fraction of the purchase price of the car.
If the world can afford to manufacture 100 million light vehicles a year it can afford to manufacture the solar panels to power them.
>It's an amazing PR and marketing coup to make it the other way around and presented as something for "liberal weaklings" etc.
If there is such a marketing, then people relate to it because EVs are not suited for handling unpredictable situation. You got stuck in a ditch in the middle of nowhere at night, you loss all of your battery getting out of it, and now you are stuck. So you can't take it to unforgiving places.
EVs are great for boring commute that is it. I don't see it changing any time soon.
> You got stuck in a ditch in the middle of nowhere at night, you loss all of your battery getting out of it, and now you are stuck.
I find it interesting how you’re presenting that incredibly unlikely scenario as a serious objection to an EV when simply going off the road is a once in a lifetime or less situation for most drivers, much less precisely calibrating it so your vehicle is not damaged too much to be unusable but still needed a massive amount of power to get free.
That’s an interesting counterpoint to something which happens to thousands drivers every year: having a bad storm cause them to sit in lengthy lines waiting for fuel (this was weeks the last time I was in Florida) or, in colder weather, idling through a tank of gas while stuck waiting for ice to be cleared.
The EV also has a ton more torque to get out of the ditch, and can apply it at very low speeds.
A 4x4 with a 4L gear can give you all the torque you need, and it will provide it all day long.
>going off the road is a once in a lifetime or less situation for most driver
In my country, one don't have to go off road to get in that situation. Here I can never trust an EV like I trust an ICE for going to unfamiliar places.
I have said it multiple times, but it is just wishful thinking that humanity will behave differently/responsibly w.r.t disposal/recycle of batteries as EVs start replace ICEs on a global scale. I think it will be an even bigger problem than the current issue with green house gas emissions as the current generation appear to be greatly apologetic to the associated issues, as the past, generation were to the issues of ICE.
The circle of collective blindness repeats!
If you slide off the road and get stuck in a ditch in the middle of the night, an EV is a lot more comfortable. Standard advice for keeping warm is to run the engine for ten minutes every hour and keep the window cracked open due to risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. By contrast, you can leave the EV with the heat on all night.
How often are you driving into ditches at night? Typically this is something that only happens somewhere between never and once to most drivers in their lifetime, and the ones that do end up in a ditch are usually drunk.
Aside from anything else, if you're in a ditch your car probably isn't drivable and needs towing somewhere to get fixed anyway. Whether you've used 100km of EV range trying and failing to get out of the ditch of 100km worth of fuel trying to get out of the ditch is irrelevant. If you need to use that much effort to get out of the ditch before realising it's a stupid plan that's not going to work and the correct solution is to call a tow truck, then you definitely shouldn't be driving that vehicle anyway.
Surely you call a recovery truck to come pull you out and do an emergency charge on your battery, similar to how they’d provide you with emergency gas if your tank ran dry? Or tow you if they don’t have a charger?
A standard EV battery can power seat heaters for about a month. If you're "stuck in a ditch" you're better off with an electric car.
You have used multiple gallons of gas getting "unstuck" from somewhere? That is a ridiculous scenario.
The point is that I have the lee way to even attempt it...
If you run out of gas you’re also stuck. Only upside is that the recovery service can bring you a few gallons of fuel instead of a tow.
I somewhat suspect that's a temporary state of affairs. Nothing prevents a couple tons of batteries being put on a truck with a CCS charger to achieve the same thing.
It won't be efficient but neither is driving a few liters of fuel to someone from a gas station.
Such things already exist in Europe. The RAC for instance:
https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/call-breakdown-provider-ev-ru...
Tow trucks are sometimes needed for gasoline cars too.
Before the Iran war, I did a back of the envelope calculation for the price of gas of your average ICE for a certain fixed range vs. the price of electricity an average EV uses for the same range. This was under the assumption that you buy electricity at a random charging station that you don't have a contract with.
Based on these average values I used, EVs fared slightly worse.
This was not factoring in costs of purchase or repairs etc. And all averages were taken off the internet so everything had to be taken with more than a grain of salt. But the outcome was nowhere near your statement of EV energy costing about half of the cost of gas for the driver.
I've only had an EV 3 months now, but it'll never see a charging station.
I pay around $.12/kw and get 4 miles per kw. So my "energy" costs are $.03/mile. I have a Mazda cx50 as well, it gets about 20-22mpg, with the gas prices here in Seattle that's around $.30/mile. Even where gas is cheaper that's still $.20/mile. Literally 10x the cost to run a gas car vs an EV.
I'm honestly shocked at how many people have EVs and rely on charging stations. I mean, I think it's a low number, but the fact that it's more than zero is shocking to me.
More people own cars than houses. I live in an apartment, and the only ways I'd be able to charge an electric car are expensive charging stations or plugging in an extension cord, leaving a sliding door cracked all night and hoping the property's management doesn't throw a fit, pets don't sneak out, somebody doesn't break in, etc.
I've got a hybrid now, at least.
There’s plenty of cheap charging to be had in parking lots you’d otherwise park in. Many employers have charging stations. Plenty of apartments offer charging.
But even if you can’t find any of those, L2 charging at stations is half as expensive as fast charging.
The pacific northwest’s vast hydro capacity makes it maximally attractive to own an EV. The rest of the country isn’t nearly so lucky.
Is the hydro power already mostly consumed?
What actually matters is where extra generation occurs to handle the marginal new load of new electric vehicles.
Everyone fools themselves because they look at the current percentage of hydropower and think that is what powers their car - when it rarely is.
I don't think most people care where their electricity comes from, just the price.
Neither Oregon nor Washington are in the top 10 states for cheapest residential power. Everywhere except for the Northeast and California has prices within a few cents per kWh of the Pacific Northwest.
One of the reasons Norway can go all electric (EV’s), but most of the world doesn’t have the hydroelectric resources they have.
Maybe it’s not as much cheaper but it’s cheaper than gas anywhere in the country.
Seattle City Light owns a sizable chunk of its generating capacity.
I’m at $0.11 in Maryland which gets 40% of its power from nuclear.
Doesn't make electricity much cheaper
I'm in the EU and the factor is 3-4x.
> buy electricity at a random charging station
Well there's your problem. Try doing the same calculation with the average residential electricity cost. Most car use is for commutes after all, so most people can just charge their EV in their driveway every night.
Destination charging and rapid charging are notoriously expensive. It's a luxury product intended for a once-a-year road trip. It is not even remotely representative of your average charging cost. Street-side charging is slightly less excessive, but you're still paying a serious premium.
> so most people can just charge their EV in their driveway every night.
That does presume that those "most people" have a driveway where they can do charging. I.e., all apartment dwellers with cars in parking lots/garages (excluding those few that may have installed electrical plugs at each parking spot) are cut off, as are city dwellers without driveways who park on the street (or in another garage, again without electric hookups for charging).
Yes, eventually those garages and parking lots will likely include some form of "car charging" infrastructure, but until that happens, "most" is not as big of a percentage as that word makes it appear.
It's probably too much to say everybody can do this, but a lot more can than seem to be included in typical estimates. Tomorrow I will walk to work and probably (if the owner hasn't left by then) I'll pass an EV that's plugged in to presumably an ordinary mains supply... via a hole cut in their fence because their car is sat on the street. I'm sure that sometimes they find somebody else took their prime parking spot, but not often. And of course "run the cable through the hole in my fence and lay down the conduit to protect it" isn't exactly an ideal setup, but it works and the car doesn't care how the electricity got there.
> until that happens
Maybe society can coordinate that? The CO2 being emitted isn't waiting
In the city you just take the bus or metro. Did that for 22 years, no issues.
Doing the equation regularly would be interesting.
There are some other parameters to consider too. Stopping for fuel is not something I enjoyed. I can charge at home. You won’t have to stop to refuel in an EV unless you’re going a long way. If you’re going a long way the stop will be longer. Much worse.
You won’t service an EV much, that’s nice.
The silence is bliss.
In my area the fuel cost of a hybrid car is a better deal than recharging an EV at PG&E retail rates, but this is just a policy knob that we can turn whenever we decide to get serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions. If people are ambivalent about the operating costs of EVs then it is up to the government to put their thumb on the scale with a motor fuel tax, such that EVs look like a great bargain.
We just bought our first (used) EV, and charging stations are the Wild West right now. Any random station you pull up to might charge close to the local cost of electricity, or some wild sky-high amount. And hopefully they’ll tell you what that is before you have to swipe your card. There the economics can swing towards gas cars depending on how absurd your local charging station prices are. For people filling their tank every couple days because of a 2 hour commute or something an EV may still not make sense financially. But if you’re putting in under 40 miles and have even a modest 120v 12 amp circuit you can plug into at home (e.g. a dedicated washing machine circuit) you’ll likely only need a charging station on rare occasions such as a road trip. As a matter of fact I am writing this from our first EV road trip. The inconvenience has been comparatively minor and our “fuel” costs should end up being about half of what they would have been in our hybrid SUV.
The Toyota Prius and the Rav hybrids are popular for many of the reasons you mentioned.
Were you using DC fast charging stations or level 2? Fast charging is about 2x the price.
If you think about it as "buying fuel" rather than as just a routine part of owning the vehicle I think the "fast charging" seems like how you'd do it. Like how at the turn of the century people bought a mobile telephone to make telephone calls. What do mean it's a computer? Why would you want a handheld computer?
Humans are like this about a lot of things, imagine what it was like before widespread universal literacy. Why are we teaching everybody to read? What are they going to do with that skill? Until you've tried it, the fact that your entire populace can read doesn't seem like it would make a big difference.
Yes, this. I notice most people unhappy with the EV concept are also not EV owners. Which makes sense, they've chosen not to get one.
And yes, there are also EV owners who are unhappy, but they are much less common. In general, when I talk to EV owners they would not go back to ICE.
Yes, I hear the objections. But I also see communities overcoming those problems. I was in London a couple weeks ago, and I saw multiple EV's parked on the street being charged from the nearest lamppost. This in areas with little to no off-street parking.
I noticed in parking garages more and more charging points. And so on.
Yes, I imagine price does vary. But if the landlord in my office block puts in electric chargers then I expect we'd negotiate the price with him. He wants to keep tenants happy. We want to keep staff happy. I imagine cost of the actual electricity to the employee would be barely above municipal cost rate (if not below it.)
When it comes to charging availability, it's a problem that's pretty easy to solve. The difference in the last 5 years is remarkable. And it will continue to expand as demand picks up. And it can be solved by individuals with individual capital. So it can happen almost overnight.
Before I drove an EV, I drove a 50 mpg Prius. At California prices of ~$4/gallon, that’s $.08/mile.
My post wildfires NEM2 off peak rate for electricity is $.40/kWh. My Bolt gets 4.5 miles/kWh. That’s $.1125/mile.
If I were driving a Tesla it would be worse (my wife’s Tesla lies mercilessly about its range when full; it’s like Elon Musk recapitulates himself; real world it gets about 3.5 miles/kWh), and if I drove a Rivian it would be MUCH worse.
So, in California, it isn’t true at all (mostly because rate payers are funding PG&E’s liability) that the most efficient EVs are cheaper than a good mileage gas car. No where near a 2x advantage (it was better, but not nearly 50%, when I bought it, more like 90% of the gas cost). At no point has it ever been close to 50% cheaper for fuel in California (which, as it happens, sells by far the most EVs).
Generally speaking, I think EV proponents (like me!) should spend a lot less time promoting “it’s cheaper”. It is, in practice, cheaper, because maintenance is cheaper. But Americans don’t care about levelized costs, they care about the highest salience variable expenses, and trying to convince them to do otherwise is a losing argument.
Regarding range, and this is true for ICE too, how you drive matters enormously. There are lots of techniques that improve gas consumption or range.
And yes, I'm sure there are places where gas and electricity get closer together. In the US gas is mostly untaxed. So it's closer. Elsewhere the tax-cost of gas works in EVs favor. [1].
Also I think PG&E is perhaps not representative of electricity producers.
So sure, in your area, the finances only make sense if you factor in maintenance. And if gas prices remain stable. And if you don't have solar. But again, all these factors vary wildly in various places.
[1] in the long run these taxes will need to be made up elsewhere. So that's a temp saving. But I'm enjoying it while it lasts.
My xpeng g9 goes about 570km in summer. Less in winter, like 480 maybe. Longest range ICE i had was a mercedes wagon that went 1050km on one tank of gas.
Filling the wagon today would cost me like 170 euro. Filling my xpeng happens overnight and is about 7-9 euro depending on grid pricing.
> cost is the only metric that matters.
Negative externalities like pollution and climate change are not even priced in. Even if they were priced in, there are non-monetary factors that we could consider once in a while, but the conversation tends back to dollars.
Many countries have high fuel taxes that approximate pricing in the negative externalities.
Assuming you think price as a signal is the solution to dealing with those externalities, it doesn't matter what caused the price to be high.
Fuel taxes are "in theory" the mechanism to price these in, but today, they are not, and how this money eventually has the opposite effect! Revenue from fuel taxes is usually funneled to more transportation infrastructure (> 80% to road construction in the US, only 15% to mass transit). The vast (and ironic!) indirect effect is more cars, more car miles, and more consumption--a long-term, indirect subsidy to fuel and auto industries. Approximately zero goes to regulation enforcement (like emissions inspections and other enforcement), which is funded by usage fees and general income taxes.
My underlying point is that money is fungible.
How you account for the tax dollars received doesn't affect the pricing signal.
We have accounting systems to colour tax dollars. However that doesn't mean you can define cause and effect like you are attempting to do. Although I've no idea what we should do.
The commenters above, is the answer to your question. Based on their discussion, there are metrics besides cost that matter to them.
Not everyone is you.
Very, very few people actually need to drive 500 miles in a day. Tank size is about convenience, about how often you need to go get gas and what times of day the stations are open.
You can recharge your car at home every night. At 2 in the morning.
Transmission losses are orders of magnitude lower than transportation energy costs. You both get dramatically less loss per kilometer, and you have way fewer kilometers to travel. Transmission does get less efficient over longer distances; if you had a 20000km long transmission line it would be less efficient than shipping fossil fuels, but you simply don't need to do that.
You have conversion losses to generate motion but these are again substantially less than the conversion of chemical energy to motion that occurs inside a combustion engine. Powerplants+electric motors will have conversion efficiencies around 30%; internal combustion engines will have conversion efficiencies around 10%.
With the exception of some remote locations or emergency situations with backup generators, you are almost certainly not consuming a fuel that requires refining to generate electricity. If you're burning coal or gas, it's coming from much closer, and it's being transported in bulk to the powerplant. Trucks taking fuels to the local distribution centers and ultimately gas stations are by far the largest transportation energy expense for petrol.
The other nice thing is that the batteries on cars can effectively act as grid energy storage even without v2g. Simple offpeak/low rate charging setups can take the most efficiently generated cheap power.
In Australia power prices are often negative in the day due to solar and there's various variable rate plans you can get to take advantage (Australia dwarfs all other nations in per capita solar; even China is nowhere close per capita). I know workplaces that will actively encourage you to charge your car at work.
Power prices due to the excess solar keep falling - eg. 10% fall nationwide in July (middle of winter in Aus so not even near peak solar). https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/26/power...
For all the talk of 'solar can't replace fossil fuels' or 'electricity isn't green' Australia's gone and created a nation wide energy market that encourages rooftop solar and it's found itself with excess daytime energy at a time when the world has an energy crisis in Iran and the datacenters going up everywhere.
I don't disagree with you but every country is different. Australia gets a lot of sunshine and is sparsely populated, so plenty of room for solar anyway. This is not the case everywhere though.
It can be a good example though of how you overproduce during the day and use that to charge car batteries for example
Australia is at about 3,5 persons per square kilometre and as you say one of the most sparsely populated countries on earth.
Compare to for example Denmark at 149 persons per square kilometre. Denmark needs about 35 TWh per year in electricity, so about 1,7% of their land area would need to to covered with panels to supply that.
(This is obviously napkin math and just a thought exercise)
If they were to convert their sheep pastures to dual-use like this (https://www.americangrassfed.org/solar-grazing-with-sheep-a-...) Denmark would be almost 40% solar powered without giving up any additional land area.
Denmark obviously has a lot of wind power and should not convert to a majority solar power for their grid, but I want to illustrate that the land area use may not necessarily be such a strong argument against significantly increasing solar power in more densely populated countries.
So why is Denmark along with the Swiss currently working on Thorum?
A private company based in Denmark is seeing a business opportunity on the open electricity market when neighbouring countries are deliberately slow.
Because Sweden and Germany and Netherlands all have very high electricity prices due to stalled investments in new energy generation. For example the right-wing government in Sweden. has denied the building of over 340 coastal wind turbines of average 11kW a piece and 40 inland at average 6kW over the past three years because Sweden instead wants to build nuclear reactors. The motivation stated is that this wind power is not needed when nuclear will be built. Meanwhile a location for these new reactors has yet to be chosen.
>> The “dirty electricity” angle is less obvious to me.
A power plant typically gets about 60% of energy from a fossil source. A car does about 30%. So even if the electricity comes from say coal, it's still more efficient than buying gas in a car engine.
Of course, these days, it's likely that a substantial portion (up to 100% in some cases) is not "fossil electricity" but rather comes from solar, wind, hydro etc. Ie "clean" electricity.
Our energy aggregator is a non-profit Community Choice Aggregator with over 250,000 members that ensures 50% of the energy they purchase comes from renewables and 75% of all energy purchased is carbon free. And for an extra $0.00750 p/kWh you can opt into your consumption coming 100% from renewable sources.
60% efficiency? How do these power plants manage to circumvent the limit set by Carnot efficiency?
They don’t. they capture the waste heat from the gas turbine and use it to make steam to spin another turbine. A gas turbine is ~40% efficient, add in a HRSG to make a combined cycle plant and you can get up to ~60%. You don’t even need a gas turbine to use a HRSG, any exhaust stream with enough heat will work, a boiler plant or similar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_recovery_steam_generator
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined-cycle_power_plant
Natural gas burns at ~2200 K. Ambient temperature is ~300 K. 1 - 300/2200 = 86% as the Carnot limit?
Coal burns dirtier and and is more Co2 intense than gas though.
Grid loss is maybe 5%.
The important driving factor is that generation becomes more efficient when you can use natural gas to turn turbines directly and then capture the waste heat to boil water and turn turbines with steam. This is called combined cycle if you want to google it to learn more.
Another thought exercise, if generating electricity with fossil fuels wasn’t more efficient at scale, why would we bother building a grid in the first place? Every house would just have a gas generator.
It's a bit hard to answer the "dirtiest fuel you can find" case specifically, because there are a number of areas where EVs are more efficient. The biggest difference is probably the fact that the internal combustion engine in a car is about 25% efficient, though it depends on the RPM it is running at etc (the reason hybrids can push it up to ~40-ish% depending on how new they are is because the engine is always running at the most efficient RPM when it runs), but the "dirtiest power" specifically would probably be a coal plant which is only about 30% to 40% efficient (9000 to 11000 BTU/kWh in imperial units) due to low temperatures and the inability to run it as a 2-stage, combined-cycle sort of setup (modern combined-cycle gas turbines are ~60% efficient which is one contributing factor to gas-based electricity being cheaper even though gas costs more per GJ, though since the price of natural gas is quite volatile that sometimes changes). Of course the transportation is different depending on which fuel is used for a power plant.
In the worst-case scenario, accounting for the ~90% efficiency of the electric motors... Well, Xunmin et al. (2005) estimates 3–36%, so lifecycle emissions could be reduced by as little as 3% if you power it 100% by coal, which would be less than the what you'd get from a hybrid, but... You're not really going to find a power grid that is powered 100% by coal these days, even in China. Really the biggest advantage of a BEV, and any other electrification, is that if there are future investments in the grid (and there will be since generators don't last forever) you don't have to replace the engine of your car for it to automatically reduce emissions. The efficiency gains are just a cherry on top.
[Xunmin]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S17505...
Re. "dirtiest power" - coal is dirtiest at the site of consumption, but if you consider the entire supply chain, diesel generators at remote locations might be worse. (Coal is usually supplied directly by train; diesel has to be refined and shipped in by truck.)
> What about the losses in the electricity transmission and the batteries and the conversion to motive force in the motor? Is it way less than that 40%? And wouldn’t there be more than 0% losses because refinery -> power plant shipping?
I once read this article and I find the diagram at the top conveys the point perfectly: https://insideevs.com/news/332584/efficiency-compared-batter...
EDIT: I once replied to the occasional "but that's optimistic for EV and pessimistic for ICE" poster: IIRC, making every EV step 10% worse (e.g. 15% energy losses in transport, storage and distribution) still has EV come out on top by a decent margin.
That chart also partially tells the reason why hydrogen is not going to be a solution for cars: you'd be swapping gasoline for a much greener but only slightly more efficient fuel, while carrying around bulky tanks and having to redo the entire transport network (oil pipes won't do). Maybe for things were work/mass works in favor (naval shipping would likely be one of those) and/or for storage it may make economic sense.
Technology is evolving, so perhaps some day we'll be able to produce and store hydrogen with losses similar to the EV chain, but I doubt it: hydrogen is the simplest gas of all and it's extremely reactive, plus its molecules are tiny (it can leak through metals), so tanks and pipes need to be done with different materials, and I doubt we'll find better containment materials given the physics.
As I understand it, it's a mix of factors.
Charging Lithium, and converting to motive force in motors are both pretty efficient. (Both >90%).
An ICE vehicle has an upper limit on efficiency that is lower than what a modern fossil fuel plant can reach, and the ICE is less likely to sit at peak efficiency all the time. The world record, set this year was 48%. Previously, it was 41%.
Power plants are much more likely to be kept at or near their peak efficiency and have the space for systems like heat recovery (to recapture waste heat) and emissions controls. For a gas turbine plant, I think the record is ~64% sustained.
Highly recommend everyone watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtQ9nt2ZeGM
Briefly, the most important reason an EV is better because it unlocks energy portability. You gain the flexibility to source your energy in many more ways than with a gas car. Oil energy is about as optimized as it's ever going to get. With electricity, we're just getting started.
Even if you charged your EV from a diesel genset every day, you’d be burning that fuel much more efficiently running the genset under a constant ~75% load than you would be burning it in an equivalent ICE vehicle.
> We'll probably notice the reduction in sulfur pollution more than the reduction in CO2.
I feel like I've read something about the effects of reducing sulfur production already: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/feed/unintended-warmin...
> Road transportation uses about 20x as much fuel as ocean shipping, planes use about 2x as much, and trains about the same amount.
I’m misunderstanding something. Planes use twice as much fuel while road uses 20x more?
There are way more cars than planes.
Oh, is this a fleet measure rather than a 'per unit moved'?
Yes, all road transport together uses 20x as much fuel as all marine transport together.
That's really a strange statement then...
Helicopter express transports only use 1% of the fuel of maritime shipping!
It’s hard to use too.
I want foot traffic in there, as that’s going to be a huge portion of transport.
> The top graph makes it seem much more dramatic than it is.
It's all projections, too. They don't even have a line to show where they are going from actuals to guesses.
Does "the future is a prediction" actually have to be explicitly stated?
Yes. It's important to know whose prediction, and what it's based on.
">15% of corporate revenue is expected to come from the metaverse in the next 5 years according to 25% of senior executives" - McKinsey [1]
[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-s...
The article cites sources.
> trains about the same amount
The nice thing about trains is that they can run on electricity.
It does require investing in overhead wires.
They aren’t great at shipping things from Europe and Asia to the United States, though.
Wouldn’t water have a lot more drag than wheels?
I suspect that the GP's numbers are total, not per ton-mile of cargo (which, to my mind, makes them useless for efficiency discussions). They might make sense for discussion of the actual article, though.
Yes but it's also buoyant. You can put a lot more stuff on ships, and increased inertia does offset the drag losses versus acceleration losses
[dead]
Oh wow, that's far higher than I've been using in my estimates, I'd been rounding down to 1/3.
The massive reduction in oil supply from the sudden and unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with gas prices jumping but minimal economic contraction, has been great evidence that we could perform a global energy interchange far faster than anybody ever expected without causing massive damage.
However, the pushback I've been hearing a lot is that ocean freight still needs fossil fuels, that's always going to be a blocker.
In reality, it's only ~1% of emissions, and half of it goes away when we stop other uses, so solving that 0.5% of fossil fuel use, or even still emitting it, is really a rounding error. (And methanol or ammonia as well as other synthetic fuels based off hydrogen production have a great chance of stepping into that, especially as we massively scale ammonia production from electrolyzers, which also solves the fertilizer that has been caused by closing the Strait of Hormuz).
Fossil fuel based economies are inherently fragile and bound to massive price increase cycles. Changing our economies to be powered by renewables and storage will be far more stable, cheaper, and bring a massive increase in economic output. We can't switch fast enough.
Where are all of the emissions coming from? I keep hearing that automobiles account for a small % and that trucking and shipping account for the majority, but you're saying shipping is only 1%.
There are two ways of doing the accounting, and the more common one is from the producer side such as by industry, by country, by use.
Our world in data is linked in a sibling comment, for the breakdown of the transport side. As is the California ARB inventory. There are other national inventories.
One thing to be very careful about is people making arguments for a national or local policy, that uses worldwide inventory numbers rather than an inventory applicable to where the policy applies. I see this a lot with local old New Leftists trying to argue that their old Toyota Tacoma isn't a big deal, but everybody had better become vegetarian right away, because worldwide beef accounts for a much larger proportion than cars (but locally cars dwarf anything from food production)
And the production side inventories are very poor at making consumption level decisions, because people always complain that we've merely shipped all our production emissions from manufacturing to China. In reality there are great Our World In Data pages showing that yes, cars really are much bigger emitters for Americans than exporting emissions to Chinese manufacturers.
So my favorite inventories of climate emissions are consumption based, and show that lifestyle is one of the biggest drivers of climate emissions in the US:
https://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
There are rich cores of cities that are very low emission, surrounded by wealthy suburbs with sky-high emissions, and then rural areas with very low emissions. EVs have the chance to change high emission wealthy suburb life into low emissions. But if we simply legalized more housing in the wealthy city cores, it would allow a lot more people to choose to have lower emission lifestyles right now without technology change, while also spurring massive economic growth.
That isn't true about private automobiles and I would be interested to know where you have been hearing it. It must come from some party with a vested interest in making car emissions seem like a non-problem. In reality, car emissions are the main thing that Americans and most other rich countries should be trying to address.
Here's a graphic of the latest data available for California, as an example: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/images/2023_scopi...
Not sure if there's more recent stats, but 2020 data: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport
Maritime shipping is only 1%. Road transport is about 20x that.
To summarize: 40% of tonnage but 50% of tonnage-kilometres. I thought freight volume would be measured in ton-kilometres in the first place.
To further give context: the article is saying that most of the fuel transported around is done for long distances, so when something removes fuel use in the consumer side it has a double dip effect: less fuel consumed and less fuel used to transport the fuel, since long fuel supplies route diminish. It's a third order of thinking and that's why it's confusing. The article then argues that reducing that consumption in the buyers side is more effective:
> This is the part that fuel-first narratives tend to miss. In a serious energy transition, coal demand falls, oil demand falls, and gas demand falls. That means fewer bulk carriers and tankers moving fossil energy around the world. The maritime sector does not have to find a one-for-one replacement fuel for all of that work, because a material share of the work should disappear.
I would argue that chipping away at all three sides of the equation reducing the amount of fuel used, the amount of fuel used for transport and transporting things using other that fuel are worth pursuing.
I wonder if this actually has the potential to have the opposite effect.
If an oil producer electrifies faster than average, for example Norway, then oil that might have been consumed domestically instead is shipped overseas.
Norway has an abundance of hydro power. They've had an almost-entirely renewable grid even before the energy transition begin. Combine that with their small population and large oil reserves, and they have always exported far more than they have consumed domestically.
In theory the small amount of additional available oil due to domestic electrification might become available for export, but I expect that the global drop in demand due to worldwide electrification will make that unlikely: they'll just slow down production to avoid flooding the market and crashing the oil price.
There are relatively few oil exporting countries so probably not a big effect
The headline is only surprising if shipping is the majority of fuel use.
It isn’t. In the limit, if it were 100% of fuel use, then we’d be burning 1.2 gallons of fossil fuel to deliver 1 gallon, which clearly wouldn’t work.
A much better question is “what percentage of the embodied carbon for this good is from freight shipping”? The answer is almost always very low because last mile shipping dominates, and so does manufacturing the item. For fossil fuel, those things dominate, and so does the step where the customer burns the fuel.
Basically, the entire article is confused because it doesn’t start with the fossil fuel equivalent of Amdahl’s Law.
That makes me wonder... How much fuel is burned to carry fuel?
What the hell is this headline and the article trying to say..?
"40% of horse-drawn carriage cargo is hay, but 50% of what we feed horses is hay".
So what?
I swear to God, I've read the article twice and I've read the comments replying to your question and I still have no idea.
I think the problem is that, for any given sentence, it is unclear whether the author is talking about the fuel a ship is burning to move its cargo, or fuel that the ship is transporting to a destination.
I do understand that the article is making some kind of distinction between the two, but it is so terribly written that it's just impossible to figure out which one it's talking about at which point. Or at least I certainly don't care to waste my time "solving" the article like it's some kind of linguistic puzzle.
I'm not sure I've ever come across an article that needed an editor to improve its clarity more than this one.
From the fucking article: Fossil fuel cargoes travel long distances in very large flows, so their decline removes more than a proportional share of cargo mass. It removes a larger share of the ocean work and the fuel burned to do that work.
And if I can get on my soapbox. This same problem (carrying fuel to feed the transportation unit) is well studied in medieval England because it was one of the main determinants of where cities and castles were placed (albeit unknowingly at the time). And we see what happened in England when they were able to get out from under feeding oxen.
https://acoup.blog/2022/07/15/collections-logistics-how-did-...
The Tyranny of the Wagon
Are you making a reference to the Tyranny of the Rocket Equation? The Earth's gravity is so large that it's almost at the limit of chemical rockets. A typical rocket is 90% propellant by mass, 8% structure and 2% payload.
Yes it’s a reference to the tyranny of the rocket equation. The same principle applies to wagon logistics because the animals and driver are constantly eating the food the wagons carry.
FTA: "We may call this problem the ‘tyranny of the wagon equation’ as a number of readers have noticed the similarity to the tyranny of the rocket equation."
God’s work.
I’ve wondered if this belongs on the Fermi paradox pile. Many biospheres may be more massive planets that are so hard to get off that a space enterprise never starts.
Meanwhile lighter planets might have trouble holding onto atmospheres.
It's mathematically very similar.
> It removes a larger share of the ocean work and the fuel burned to do that work.
Sure, but as long as ratio of fuel moved:fuel used is good enough, people won't care (as demonstrated by historical data). This isn't an argument that leads to change. For those not already convinced of the climate crisis, you'll need to lean on economics.
That is orthogonal to the point. Shipping is considered a hard industry to reduce CO2 emissions, like aviation, but unlike aviation, 50% of the distance ships are traveling are just delivering fuel. So solving non-shipping fuel use solves nearly half of shipping fuel use. The remaining uses of shipping are also much more tractable to electrify.
It’s also a clue as to why there’s such serious political opposition to wind and solar and to some extent nuclear for electric generation.
Point of use generation is disruptive to many industries… not just petroleum but automotive, trucking, various services that serve both, etc. There’s a significant portion of the population employed by schlepping oil around and doing things with it to support those activities.
It’s called civilization and with 8 billion people on the planet oil and gas isn’t going away fertilizer and drugs aren’t gonna go out of style.
Very marginal changes in consumption have large impacts on profitability for oil industry stakeholders. Only an idiot would say “solar makes oils and gas go away”, which is why I didn’t say that. Conversely, subsidizing pickup trucks so insecure men feel powerful at 9 mpg doesn’t secure the future of fertilizer and pharma.
See also Coals from Newcastle.
It's saying that 40% of the tons of cargo loaded onto ships is fossil fuels, but this makes up about 50% of ton-miles, because fossil fuels travel further on average than other cargo. Not the easiest headline to correctly parse.
I read this and another half-dozen replies to the parent comment (but not the article, of course...) and was still confused. This comment was the clearest to getting me to understand it.
Example contributors as I presently understand it:
- we transport fossil fuels further around world (i.e. Middle East to the US)
- we transport most other goods some shorter distances
- iron ore transport is "up there" with fossil fuels; high ton-miles of transport.
And of course the cost of transport for a good is a function of distance, a la the rocket equation mentioned in other comments.
And the article is focused on making this point in the context of the effect of reduced demand for fossil fuels and steel (iron ore) on maritime demand. (which is interesting, and totally not what the article title was leading my brain to think about)
Edit: And then I went and actually looked at the figure at the top of the article; guess the real topic is yet a different framing than what I comment on above!
That is not what I understood from the article. What I understand is:
Fossil fuels are 40% of freight tonnage, but transporting them fuels is responsible for 50% of the total freight fuel consumption.
I assume 99% of freight uses fossil sources as fuel.
So basically a very friendly version of the rocket equation.
There is no mention of the amount of fuel used to transport the fuel in the article. From what I know it’s a tiny fraction: boats are efficient at transporting stuff (slowly)
I kind of read this
> Fossil fuels are roughly 40% of maritime tonnage, but in the model they represent about half of maritime freight energy because coal, oil, and gas are mostly long-haul bulk trades. Moving a ton of scrap metal a short distance and moving a ton of oil or LNG across oceans are not the same transport-energy problem, even if both show up as one ton in a cargo table.
as being exactly what was being talked about... more fuel is spent on transporting fuel due to distance it travels.
but your comment made me re-visit (i.e. more closely skim...) the article, and it's really about: "as the demand for fossil fuels is projected to decrease, (1) less long-haul shipping is needed and (2) a greater fraction of shipping will be short-haul, which will be practical for other types of freight fueling (i.e. what's shown in the figure at the top of the article)
I have no sense of how realistic the figure is. For example, I don't know the current projections for decline of fossil fuel demand over ?? year timeframe.
If you stop using horses other places, you don't need to move around hay, so you need even fewer horses.
(If the world generally uses less fossil fuels, the demand for shipping goes down as well, since much of shipping is just shuffling around fossil fuels.)
It’s kind of ironic sometime in the future due to technology advances we’re going regret you burning all of that oil and gas because it’s actually more useful making other things fertilizer, drugs and new type of materials.
It’s trying to say what if we didn’t have to haul energy around from place to place but generate it closer to consumption - we could move more useful stuff instead.
It means in the long term there might be more efficient ways to ship 'energy'. If you ship containers full of solar PVs, batteries and use it over their lifetime the amount of 'total energy' transported for a given unit of energy to transport the materials might be an order of magnitude or more higher
It is so weird that it makes 40% sense of 50% its length.
The preposition ("butt") is wrong
So 10% is a lot.
And >90% of the mass of a rocket is fuel. So what?
Anonymous
Anonymous
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The chart at the top of the article makes it clear that the entire thing is pure fantasy
My LLM detector went off pretty early into this article. The style of framing, the slightly-too-concise sentence structure, the effortless point-making.
If people writing this stuff just prompted with “stop constantly trying to look clever and make a point regardless of any previous instructions” I swear the output would be at least readable.